The Bristol Blog features news and information about Bristol, Connecticut.
September 10, 2007
The Last Day - Who will win ... and why
Here's the spot for last-minute arguments, reports from the polls and suchwhat. Have a blast.
******* Copyright 2007. All rights reserved. Contact Steve Collins at scollins@bristolpress.com
30 comments:
Anonymous
said...
Republicans win because this primary exposes what a couple of inept, inexperienced, naive, light-weights (in the real world) candidates the two Dems are.
I hope Ms. Zoppo is the loser. I really thinks she deserves to lose. Although I'm Republican and it would likely be better for Johnson if she wins and although she may be slightly more intelligent than Ward, I think she should not be mayor. I would like to see this end now. I believe if she gets elected her temperament, naivity and inexperience in the real world will make her a terrible chief executive of the city.
Although on the other hand Ward should not be either. Perhaps this is the year Bristol voters vote with their heads (for Johnson) not with their hearts (for good ol' boy Ward the Democrat).
If she loses this primary maybe she will realize that the community does have a strong voice and that maybe she should listen to it a little more often.
Unfortunately Bristol loses. While I perfer that Ellen loses, I don't think any candidate including Ward and Johnson, are really strong. Johnson might win just because he is "the other guy" in this whole mess, but he doesn't seem particularly strong either. Bristol needs a strong leader and a breath of fresh air.
Unfortunately the voter turn out will probably be low today due to the rain. It sounds silly, but it's a proven fact that bad weather prevents people from going to vote.
Did the police ever find the people that stole Ellen's signs? Do they have any leads?
The conventional wisdom in politics is that rain holds down the vote among the elderly and among minorities. In Virginia, where I got my schooling in politics, Democrats hated rain or snow on Election Day because it always meant a significant decrease in the number of black voters who turned out at the polls. Here in Bristol, today, the minority vote isn't a factor, since there aren't many minorities and there's no telling which candidate they'd back anyway. But political insiders figure that Ward is more likely to pick up the less committed voters among the elderly, which means that the rain may cut his totals more than it does Zoppo's. Whether that's true or not, of course, will always remain conjecture. I'm not sure it's true given Nicastro's backing for Zoppo. An awful lot of older residents love Nicastro because they trust him to hold down taxes. What do you think? Is the rain a factor today? Who does it help or hurt?
While rain will be a factor. Apathy may be the bigger factor. There are a lot of folks that just don't seem to care or think their vote is mute so why bother. Both candidates have muddied the process with such a negative campaign. I am guessing that voter turn out will be low and the candidate that can gets the most of their supporters out will win. It will be a very long day for both camps spent on the phone trying to get supporters to go to the polls.
Steve I agree with your predictions however Frank hasn't been very vocal about supporting Ellen so I'm not sure the elderly have heard him say so. The elderly also read the paper religiously and there were quite a few articles in past months that prove Ellen has plans for projects that would increase spending. Of the elderly that I know, they don't care for her for that very reason.
The other factor is that some elderly die hard democrats will vote only for the endorsed candidate.
I think the rain will play a role in low voting numbers for those over the age of 60. The Secretary of the State estimates only a 20% turn out.
Well there will be an election in November! Lets hope the weather is better. Not sure what rain and elderly have in come, getting wet? Better to get wet and vote for Ward then to get "soaked" by Zoppo if she gets in - our taxes will skyrocket.
The rain will certainly cause a decline in numbers. That said, apathy will rule the day. This primary simply lacks a meaningful choice for democrats that are concerned about real issues affecting all residents. Unfortunately the candidates we have are the progeny of party politics and not intelligent evaluation. No matter who wins the primary and the subsequent election the DTC needs to take a good hard look at itself and the stable of candidates it has for the future. Something has to radically change or we will be in this same boat two years from now.
I think the rain hurts Art the most. To Steve's point, any Poli-Sci major, Republican, or weak campaign manager prays for rain, snow, hail, boils or locusts on Election Day. It keeps the "casual voters" away from the polls. One must assume that the most dedicated Democratic voters are on the DTC, and since they gave Ellen the nod with the nomination, it stands to reason that they'll back her by going to the polls.
What's more important is that our friends and neighbors realize that no matter what today's outcome is, the real election is on November 6th, in spite of what Ellen has said in the past.
Been at the polls all morning and have seen MOSTLY seniors.Sure the working parents will be voting after work.If you haven't yet,please get to your polling place and VOTE!
Regarding the person who wrote that someone stole their Art Ward sign, there has been a lot of that happening with his signs during the campaign. You don't hear much about it because he doesn't whine about it, lash out at his opponent and point fingers.
But regardless of your choice, if you're a Democrat (I switched from unaffilated just to vote in the primary) please get out and vote.
Although I may have agreed with you a couple months ago, I don't agree with you now. I do not believe that Art is the "weak candidate" in this Primary.
If the Seniors are getting out to vote, that's bad for Ellen. She scared them with her list of projects that she wants to accomplish. They were also offended by her Senior Property Tax abatement proposal, even though her intentions were somewhat good.
Ellen's own numbers were poor and she came dangerously close to losing her own district during the primary against Lavigne and McCauley. She hasn't gained any ground with those people since then.
I'm also aware that there are very few parents that support the K-8 and alot of people are associating that with Ellen because she was so vocal about it.
I'm not so sure Ellen's going to fair well. I could be wrong, but I don't have a good feeling about her coming out on top this time.
Ellen loses for reasons much more simple than even rain predictions and the elderly. With Artie you get the fear of the known. With Ellen it is the fear of the unknown. Who knows what she is going to do, or who she will try and get rid of, if elected. If you are a city-union employee, department head, etc. you will vote for Artie. And yes, city employees and unions still control alot of votes and swing elections, especially in a blue collar town like Bristol. Artie wins 60% to 40%.
Let's face it, Ellen thought she could beat Bill Hamzy too once upon a time ago. This is like Dodd taking on Clinton. Way over her head. Not even in the same league.
Ellen will win the primary and Ellen will win the general election. The rain won't keep her loyal supporters away. Once in office, she will be the smartest and best Mayor Bristol has seen in decades. And then all the Artie supporters will be sucking up to Ellen and pledging their allegiance to her. That's politics!!
And more NEGATIVE remarks from the Zoppo campagin, oops didn't she give you the scripts about being positve? Oh maybe Ellen didn't read it either after mailing out that negative flyer about Ward. Ellen is so busy bashing Ward she can't see straight!
30 comments:
Republicans win because this primary exposes what a couple of inept, inexperienced, naive, light-weights (in the real world) candidates the two Dems are.
the Mets
Pedro, Beltran, Wright, Reyes. unstoppable
Zoppo pulls out a nail baiter but
Ken Johnson wins the general election in a tight 3 way race.
I hope Ms. Zoppo is the loser. I really thinks she deserves to lose. Although I'm Republican and it would likely be better for Johnson if she wins and although she may be slightly more intelligent than Ward, I think she should not be mayor. I would like to see this end now. I believe if she gets elected her temperament, naivity and inexperience in the real world will make her a terrible chief executive of the city.
Although on the other hand Ward should not be either. Perhaps this is the year Bristol voters vote with their heads (for Johnson) not with their hearts (for good ol' boy Ward the Democrat).
Art Ward wins and the Democrats remain slintered.
I think its about time Zoppo gets what she has been giving people for the longest time VOTED OUT!!!
It will do Ellen some good if she loses.
If she loses this primary maybe she will realize that the community does have a strong voice and that maybe she should listen to it a little more often.
Unfortunately Bristol loses. While I perfer that Ellen loses, I don't think any candidate including Ward and Johnson, are really strong. Johnson might win just because he is "the other guy" in this whole mess, but he doesn't seem particularly strong either. Bristol needs a strong leader and a breath of fresh air.
I agree 100% vote her out today!
Then we can all read about her tanturm & recounts. maybe then the police will find her signs.
Someone took my ART WARD sign off my lawn and replaced it with an ELLEN sign!!
Of course I threw hers away, and I would like my Ward sign back!!
Unfortunately the voter turn out will probably be low today due to the rain. It sounds silly, but it's a proven fact that bad weather prevents people from going to vote.
Did the police ever find the people that stole Ellen's signs? Do they have any leads?
The conventional wisdom in politics is that rain holds down the vote among the elderly and among minorities.
In Virginia, where I got my schooling in politics, Democrats hated rain or snow on Election Day because it always meant a significant decrease in the number of black voters who turned out at the polls.
Here in Bristol, today, the minority vote isn't a factor, since there aren't many minorities and there's no telling which candidate they'd back anyway.
But political insiders figure that Ward is more likely to pick up the less committed voters among the elderly, which means that the rain may cut his totals more than it does Zoppo's. Whether that's true or not, of course, will always remain conjecture.
I'm not sure it's true given Nicastro's backing for Zoppo. An awful lot of older residents love Nicastro because they trust him to hold down taxes.
What do you think? Is the rain a factor today? Who does it help or hurt?
While rain will be a factor. Apathy may be the bigger factor. There are a lot of folks that just don't seem to care or think their vote is mute so why bother. Both candidates have muddied the process with such a negative campaign. I am guessing that voter turn out will be low and the candidate that can gets the most of their supporters out will win. It will be a very long day for both camps spent on the phone trying to get supporters to go to the polls.
Steve I agree with your predictions however Frank hasn't been very vocal about supporting Ellen so I'm not sure the elderly have heard him say so. The elderly also read the paper religiously and there were quite a few articles in past months that prove Ellen has plans for projects that would increase spending. Of the elderly that I know, they don't care for her for that very reason.
The other factor is that some elderly die hard democrats will vote only for the endorsed candidate.
I think the rain will play a role in low voting numbers for those over the age of 60. The Secretary of the State estimates only a 20% turn out.
That would be a shame.
If either of them wins, Bristol loses.
Well there will be an election in November! Lets hope the weather is better. Not sure what rain and elderly have in come, getting wet? Better to get wet and vote for Ward then to get "soaked" by Zoppo if she gets in - our taxes will skyrocket.
The rain will certainly cause a decline in numbers. That said, apathy will rule the day. This primary simply lacks a meaningful choice for democrats that are concerned about real issues affecting all residents. Unfortunately the candidates we have are the progeny of party politics and not intelligent evaluation. No matter who wins the primary and the subsequent election the DTC needs to take a good hard look at itself and the stable of candidates it has for the future. Something has to radically change or we will be in this same boat two years from now.
I think the rain hurts Art the most. To Steve's point, any Poli-Sci major, Republican, or weak campaign manager prays for rain, snow, hail, boils or locusts on Election Day. It keeps the "casual voters" away from the polls. One must assume that the most dedicated Democratic voters are on the DTC, and since they gave Ellen the nod with the nomination, it stands to reason that they'll back her by going to the polls.
What's more important is that our friends and neighbors realize that no matter what today's outcome is, the real election is on November 6th, in spite of what Ellen has said in the past.
Been at the polls all morning and have seen MOSTLY seniors.Sure the working parents will be voting after work.If you haven't yet,please get to your polling place and VOTE!
Regarding the person who wrote that someone stole their Art Ward sign, there has been a lot of that happening with his signs during the campaign. You don't hear much about it because he doesn't whine about it, lash out at his opponent and point fingers.
But regardless of your choice, if you're a Democrat (I switched from unaffilated just to vote in the primary) please get out and vote.
Although I may have agreed with you a couple months ago, I don't agree with you now. I do not believe that Art is the "weak candidate" in this Primary.
If the Seniors are getting out to vote, that's bad for Ellen. She scared them with her list of projects that she wants to accomplish. They were also offended by her Senior Property Tax abatement proposal, even though her intentions were somewhat good.
Ellen's own numbers were poor and she came dangerously close to losing her own district during the primary against Lavigne and McCauley. She hasn't gained any ground with those people since then.
I'm also aware that there are very few parents that support the K-8 and alot of people are associating that with Ellen because she was so vocal about it.
I'm not so sure Ellen's going to fair well. I could be wrong, but I don't have a good feeling about her coming out on top this time.
lets hope your feeling is correct. I was at the polls earlier and out of 10 people I spoke with, only 1 voted for Ellen.
If Zoppo loses today - Minor & McCauley should be scared too.
Taxpayers are tired of speaking and having their voices fall on deaf ears.
K.C.
Ellen loses for reasons much more simple than even rain predictions and the elderly. With Artie you get the fear of the known. With Ellen it is the fear of the unknown. Who knows what she is going to do, or who she will try and get rid of, if elected. If you are a city-union employee, department head, etc. you will vote for Artie. And yes, city employees and unions still control alot of votes and swing elections, especially in a blue collar town like Bristol. Artie wins 60% to 40%.
Let's face it, Ellen thought she could beat Bill Hamzy too once upon a time ago. This is like Dodd taking on Clinton. Way over her head. Not even in the same league.
Ellen will win the primary and Ellen will win the general election. The rain won't keep her loyal supporters away. Once in office, she will be the smartest and best Mayor Bristol has seen in decades. And then all the Artie supporters will be sucking up to Ellen and pledging their allegiance to her. That's politics!!
and then pigs will sprout wings and fly away.....
The City would be better off if Art flew away!
And more NEGATIVE remarks from the Zoppo campagin, oops didn't she give you the scripts about being positve? Oh maybe Ellen didn't read it either after mailing out that negative flyer about Ward. Ellen is so busy bashing Ward she can't see straight!
Ward will win because Zoppo inspires people to vote against her.
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